Simpson’s Paradox

With all the talk of anti-viral drug research in the news, I thought I’d amuse you with a little drug research paradox attributed to briton Edward Hugh Simpson, but noticed earlier by scotsman George Udny Yule.

Two drugs are being compared. In a trial in Hospital A, the results favour Drug 1 as follows:Screenshot 2020-04-22 at 20.50.58
In a further trial in Hospital B, the results the results also favour Drug 1 as follows:Screenshot 2020-04-22 at 20.51.09

Somebody has the idea of combining the two tables. Now it is Drug 2 that heads the effectiveness stakes!Screenshot 2020-04-22 at 20.51.37

As Mark Twain noted: There are lies, damned lies and statistics.

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